U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

نن، نن ورځ: نن، نن سبا
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Day Three

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acus01 kwns 250040 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 250038 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0738 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018 


Valid 250100z - 251200z 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
northwest Texas this evening... 


... 
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across northwest Texas into 
the mid evening hours. 


..northwest Texas... 
A cluster of storms persists across parts of northwest Texas as of 01z, 
near a pre-frontal trough. This multicellular cluster may produce 
marginally severe hail for a few more hours before instability 
wanes, and cin increases. For more information see mesoscale 
discussion 288. 


.Jewell.. 04/25/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 242155 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 242155 
txz000-250030- 


Mesoscale discussion 0288 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0455 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018 


Areas affected...portions of West Texas 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 242155z - 250030z 


Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 


Summary...an isolated damaging wind and hail threat should develop 
eastward this evening. Watch issuance is unlikely mainly due to the 
marginal thermodynamic environment. 


Discussion...isolated thunderstorms have formed this afternoon along 
and just ahead of a surface trough located over West Texas. Surface 
temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s and lower 90s across 
this region, but low-level moisture return has been very limited 
thus far. Large temperature-dewpoint spreads generally around 40-45 
degrees imply a very well-mixed boundary layer, and convective 
downdraft winds will likely be enhanced as they reach the surface, 
possibly producing isolated severe-caliber gusts. Although winds in 
the 0-3 km layer remain weak per 2136z vwp from klbb, they do veer 
and strengthen slightly into mid-levels. This is supporting 
effective bulk shear values around 30-35 kt, which should be 
marginally supportive of organized updrafts and perhaps some hail 
threat with the strongest cores. Tendency with time should be for 
convection to congeal into some form a loosely organized 
line/cluster as it moves eastward this evening, with strong to 
locally damaging winds becoming the primary threat. The limited 
low-level moisture and resultant marginal thermodynamic environment 
should tend to keep the overall severe threat isolated, and watch 
issuance appears unlikely at this time. 


.Gleason/Thompson.. 04/24/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...oun...sjt...lub...maf... 


Latitude...Lon 31650029 31550090 31590160 31920225 32170221 32530197 
33040206 33190209 33520190 33760093 33749993 33379952 
32869938 32389950 31989981 31650029