U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

acus01 kwns 260048 
Storm Prediction Center ac 260047 

Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0747 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 

Valid 260100z - 261200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight across the 
contiguous United States. 

..central Gulf Coast... 
A mid-level trough over the central Gulf Coast this evening will 
weaken and move northeast across the southeast U.S. As a closed 
mid-level low over the middle MS valley meanders eastward. A 
pre-frontal squall line extends from Alabama into the northern Gulf of 
Mexico early this evening. This convective band will continue to 
slowly move east across the Florida Panhandle this evening. Generally 
weak low to mid-level lapse rates will tend to be sub-optimal for 
both strong updraft development and severe-gust potential. While a 
strong gust cannot be ruled out in the short term, it seems the 
overall threat for severe thunderstorms will be sufficiently 
low---warranting less than 5% severe probabilities. 

Elsewhere, very widely spaced thunderstorms are possible over the Tennessee 
and Ohio valleys overnight and in parts of the Desert Southwest 
associated with a vigorous shortwave trough. 

.Smith.. 03/26/2017 


Mesoscale Discussion

acus11 kwns 251834 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 251834 

Mesoscale discussion 0331 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0134 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017 

Areas affected...central through north central Mississippi 

Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 

Valid 251834z - 252030z 

Probability of watch issuance...20 percent 

Summary...storms will pose some risk for a few instances of hail and 
strong to locally damaging wind gusts this afternoon. A ww issuance 
will probably not be necessary unless more storms begin to show 
signs of further intensification and organization. 

Discussion...a small cluster of thunderstorms which appears to have 
initiated within pre-frontal confluence zone and in association with 
a northeastward-ejecting vorticity maximum has intensified over west 
central MS. Destabilization of the boundary layer has occurred, and 
objective analysis is indicating MLCAPE from 500 to 800 j/kg. 
However, the instability corridor is relatively narrow due to 
widespread clouds and convective precipitation attending a squall 
line just downstream. The cluster of storms will develop northeast 
into northern MS next couple hours where effective bulk shear from 
30-40 kt is sufficient for updraft rotation. However tendency will 
be for mid level winds and deep-layer vertical shear to gradually 
weaken as the upper trough advances east. The narrow instability 
corridor and weakening winds aloft suggest the severe threat will 
likely remain relatively confined in space and time. In the 
meantime, the stronger storms will remain capable of a few instances 
of large hail and damaging wind. 

.Dial/guyer.. 03/25/2017 

..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Latitude...Lon 32349056 33279020 34048973 34038884 33188907 32188991 
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