U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

000 
acus01 kwns 150100 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 150059 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0659 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 


Valid 150100z - 151200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of 
the northern/central Florida Peninsula... 


... 
Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of 
the northern/central Florida Peninsula this evening, and across the 
coastal Carolinas tonight. Locally damaging winds should be the main 
threat. 


..northern/central Florida Peninsula... 
Severe probabilities across the northern/central Florida Peninsula have 
been generally confined to locations south of an expansive 
precipitation shield over northern Florida/southern Georgia that has 
stabilized the atmosphere. A broken line of pre-frontal 
thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and extending into 
west-central Florida near Tampa Bay has shown an occasional tendency 
towards small bowing segments. But, weak instability noted on the 
00z tbw sounding coupled with the convective line oriented nearly 
parallel to 40-55 kt deep-layer shear vectors suggest that any wind 
threat should remain isolated at best through mainly 03z. 
Thereafter, continued nocturnal cooling and a gradual decrease in 
large-scale lift as the upper cyclone over the lower MS valley 
slowly fills will likely lead to diminishing thunderstorm intensity 
and coverage as the line moves slowly eastward across the 
central/southern Florida Peninsula tonight. 


For more information on the near-term severe threat across this 
region, see mesoscale discussion 1711. 


..eastern Carolinas... 
A compact south-southwesterly 35-50 kt low-level jet will move over 
the coastal Carolinas tonight. Low-level moisture is forecast to 
gradually increase across this region in response, with surface 
dewpoints perhaps reaching into the mid 60s along/near the coast. 
Although instability will remain weak (mlcape less than 500 j/kg), 
strong low-level shear will be present. Very isolated strong to 
damaging winds cannot be ruled out, along with a brief tornado, as 
thunderstorms potentially move from the coastal waters onshore 
through early Saturday morning. 


.Gleason.. 12/15/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 142350 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 142350 
flz000-150145- 


Mesoscale discussion 1711 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0550 PM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 


Areas affected...west-central Florida 


Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438... 


Valid 142350z - 150145z 


The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 438 
continues. 


Summary...severe risk continues for locally damaging winds gusts and 
perhaps a tornado across portions of west-central Florida within 
ww438. 


Discussion...the line of storms west of the Florida Peninsula 
continue to move slowly eastward with most of the line still 
offshore. Shear values (effective bulk shear of 45-60 knots) and 
hodographs with 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative helicity per 
mesoanalysis/rap soundings remain supportive of embedded supercells 
and bowing segments. However, these features have yet to materialize 
within the line of storms. Subtle height falls aloft have helped 
maintain marginal buoyancy (500-1000 j/kg of mlcape) across the area 
even with the loss of insolation. As the storms continue slowly 
moving eastward, locally damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado 
remain possible through 03z across ww438. 


.Nauslar/Edwards.. 12/14/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...mlb...tbw...jax... 


Latitude...Lon 28338305 28708231 29078147 28748144 27888146 27628146 
27298219 26998279 26888308 27588309 28338305